Following the success of the EGSS’ first prediction contest, I have organized a second contest! The predictions were made on November 17th, 2016 and will resolve on March 17th, 2017. The three contestants with the lowest Brier scores (average squared errors) will win gift cards!

1. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil will exceed 40 USD per barrel on
2017-03-17.
2. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil will exceed 50 USD per barrel on
2017-03-17.
3. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil will exceed 60 USD/barrel at any
point before 2017-03-17.
4. The Canadian dollar will exceed 0.74 USD on 2017-03-17.
5. The Canadian dollar will exceed 0.85 USD at any point before 2017-03-17.
6. The US Federal Government will eliminate the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act.
7. At lease one Canadian province will legalize the use of recreational marijuana.
8. The media will report on at least one assassination attempt against Donald Trump.
9. Bashar al-Assad will remain the President of Syria.
10. Brendan Dassey will be released from prison.
11. The S&P 500 will exceed 2,200 on 2017-03-17.
12. The S&P 500 will exceed 2,500 at any point before 2017-03-17.
13. The S&P 500 will fall below 1,900 at any point before 2017-03-17.
14. An Englishman will win the 2017 William Hill World Darts Championship.
15. The Canadian team will win the 2017 World Junior Ice Hockey Championships.
16. A single terrorist attack will kill at least 30 people in an OECD country.
17. ISIS will retain control of al-Raqqa.
18. The DJ at the econ department’s holiday party will play “Stayin’ Alive.”
19. The movie “Underworld: Blood Wars” will have a Rotten Tomatoes score below 35%.
20. An artificial intelligence will beat the world champion at Starcraft 2.

Here are the predictions:

	TV	FA	WS	ML	CY	BY	XS	PN	JC	RM	GP	HT	MC	EA	KL	MM	Mean	Outcome
1	80	70	60	60	30	50	60	100	85	80	70	70	90	100	100	70	72	TRUE
2	50	70	40	40	50	40	50	100	70	50	30	10	50	50	0	50	50	FALSE
3	100	40	20	20	70	30	30	50	47	30	20	10	5	0	0	20	34	FALSE
4	90	70	50	20	50	100	10	0	65	100	50	100	80	100	20	40	63	TRUE
5	100	70	0	0	70	30	0	0	40	0	25	0	25	60	0	30	30	FALSE
6	50	65	99	100	80	100	50	100	35	0	40	50	30	70	60	80	62	FALSE
7	20	70	20	90	100	80	0	100	15	30	30	50	50	0	5	10	47	FALSE
8	0	57	100	10	100	100	100	100	30	20	10	50	50	20	80	50	53	FALSE
9	80	75	30	50	50	30	50	100	100	100	90	50	75	100	90	90	70	TRUE
10	10	60	20	40	30	0	100	100	55	90	80	50	65	50	60	75	54	FALSE
11	20	50	90	50	50	10	80	75	60	100	90	50	70	100	30	50	64	TRUE
12	20	45	20	30	30	10	60	0	75	50	10	50	30	30	0	20	33	FALSE
13	60	60	70	30	70	50	40	80	45	50	10	50	25	0	40	30	46	FALSE
14	20	50	0	60	50	50	50	100	65	40	50	50	75	50	70	50	51	FALSE
15	80	67	100	70	100	100	100	100	70	70	30	50	30	50	70	40	73	FALSE
16	100	60	0	20	70	0	100	75	40	80	40	50	30	50	10	20	51	TRUE
17	70	0	80	90	70	50	100	0	25	50	60	50	50	50	30	65	53	TRUE
18	70	60	80	90	70	80	100	100	55	100	95	100	70	100	80	20	84	FALSE
19	90	50	90	30	80	90	98	100	85	10	80	50	80	90	80	80	73	TRUE
20	10	60	0	0	0	10	80	0	50	80	5	50	20	0	30	1	26	FALSE
Score	0.248	0.331	0.320	0.323	0.387	0.398	0.363	0.551	0.244	0.261	0.164	0.231	0.182	0.175	0.286	0.197	0.223

 

Results:

1st—GP
2nd—EA
3rd—MC
4th—MM
5th—HT
6th—JC
7th—TV
8th—RM
9th—KL
10th—WS
11th—ML
12th—FA
13th—XS
14th—CY
15th—BY
16th—PN

I swear, it’s impossible to cheat on these things. Not without a crystal ball! But since I came up with the questions, I did have an hour’s head start on everyone else. I guess it just shows how much you can improve your prediction accuracy with just a little bit of preparation.