Predictions

Prediction Contest 2016

In my capacity as President of the Economics Graduate Student Society at SFU, I set up a prediction contest. We hosted a pub night and I used the opportunity to solicit predictions on a wide range of topics. The person with the lowest Brier score will be the winner.

The predictions were made on March 12th, 2016 (before Lee Sedol’s fourth match against AlphaGo) and they will all be resolved on July 1st, 2016. I report the predictions and their outcomes (when they occur) in the table below:

Robyn G. Hanh T. Ted W. Peter N. John C. Chris S. Brett K. Natt H. Garrett P. Ricardo M. Adib R. Average Outcome
Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States 0 50 70 99 77 85 100 100 90 100 80 77.4 TRUE
Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States 30 50 30 4 15 25 60 50 10 40 70 34.9 FALSE
A single terrorist attack in an OECD country will claim at least 100 lives 5 50 40 10 12 50 95 5 10 0 30 27.9 FALSE
A single terrorist attack in an OECD country will claim at least 50 lives 5 50 55 20 34 60 95 10 15 10 80 39.5 TRUE
The price of crude oil will be higher than 40 USD per barrel as of July 1st, 2016 70 50 65 25 58 60 20 80 40 80 70 56.2 TRUE
The price of crude oil will be higher than 45 USD per barrel as of July 1st, 2016 50 50 65 15 41 30 15 70 20 20 55 39.2 TRUE
An American golfer will win the US Open 50 50 5 50 63 20 0 0 70 70 70 40.7 TRUE
Serena Williams will win the Women’s Singles tennis tournament at the French Open 65 50 15 60 60 90 0 50 30 70 60 50.0 FALSE
The character who was stabbed in the last episode of Game of Thrones will be resurrected in the first episode of the next season 0 50 30 20 73 100 100 10 20 50 40 44.8 FALSE
That character will be resurrected in the first five episodes of the next season 20 50 55 40 88 100 80 10 80 50 30 54.8 TRUE
That character will be resurrected by the end of the next season 40 50 60 60 91 100 100 10 99 30 30 60.9 TRUE
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will earn more in its opening weekend than Man of Steel ($116,619,362) 50 50 60 85 47 85 100 70 85 20 80 66.5 TRUE
Maduro will remain in power in Venezuela 90 50 50 10 94 60 25 90 80 80 20 59.0 TRUE
There will be a national election in Spain 100 50 50 50 80 70 80 5 80 0 70 57.7 TRUE
Conditional on there being a Spanish election, Rajoy will be elected the next Prime Minister of Spain 90 50 60 50 48 50 100 50 45 10 80 57.5
ISIS will maintain control of Al-Raqqah 90 50 70 70 96 100 15 70 60 50 90 69.2 TRUE
The Canadian dollar will be lower than 0.76 USD 20 50 25 80 45 76 0 70 40 10 20 39.6 FALSE
The econ department will select a new Chair and Associate Chair 50 50 15 75 53 50 100 5 40 80 80 54.4 FALSE
The winner of the NHL Western Conference will win the Stanley Cup 75 50 75 50 37 100 0 50 45 10 60 50.2 FALSE
AlphaGo will defeat Lee Sedol in all five Go matches 90 50 35 100 100 0 0 100 90 90 50 64.1 FALSE
Brier Score 0.313 0.250 0.194 0.354 0.213 0.300 0.368 0.364 0.190 0.348 0.243 0.211

Updates

March 13th: Lee Sedol avenges humankind in his fourth match against AlphaGo.

March 15th: A car bomb attack in Turkey has killed at least 34, wounded 125. It doesn’t reach the threshold of 50.

March 22nd:

This attack does not reach the threshold of 50, but the accelerating rate at which these attacks have occurred is worrisome.

March 28th: Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice has earned $166,007,347 in its opening weekend according to Box Office Mojo.

April 1st: To clarify, the questions on oil prices refer to the spot price of West Texas Intermediate as of July 1st. Future prediction contests will be more precise.

April 24th: Game of Thrones’ first episode of season six… [SPOILERS REDACTED]

May 2nd: I haven’t seen the latest episode of Game of Thrones yet, but if the buzz on the internet is to believed… [SPOILERS REDACTED]

May 4th: Spain’s king has dissolved parliament, set a new election for June 26th.

June 6th: French Open: Garbine Muguruza upsets Serena Williams for women’s title.

June 7th: Hillary clinches the Democratic nomination.

June 13th: Terrorist attack kills at least 50 in Orlando nightclub. Also, Penguins won the Stanley Cup.

July 4th: The prediction contest is now over (for a few days, actually)! The remaining predictions have been resolved, with the exception of the Spanish election.

Although Rajoy’s party did win the most seats, they do not have a majority and it’s not clear they will be able to form a coalition government. Rajoy will remain as acting Prime Minister, but the electoral outcome is not clear.

Winners

1st – Garrett P.

2nd – Ted W.

3rd – John C.

4th – Adib R.

5th – Hanh T.

6th – Chris S.

7th – Robyn G.

8th – Ricardo M.

9th – Peter N.

10th – Brett K.

11th – Natt H.