Prediction Contest 2: Electric Boogaloo

Following the success of the EGSS’ first prediction contest, I have organized a second contest! The predictions were made on November 17th, 2016 and will resolve on March 17th, 2017. The three contestants with the lowest Brier scores (average squared errors) will win gift cards!

1. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil will exceed 40 USD per barrel on
2017-03-17.
2. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil will exceed 50 USD per barrel on
2017-03-17.
3. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil will exceed 60 USD/barrel at any
point before 2017-03-17.
4. The Canadian dollar will exceed 0.74 USD on 2017-03-17.
5. The Canadian dollar will exceed 0.85 USD at any point before 2017-03-17.
6. The US Federal Government will eliminate the individual mandate of the Af fordable Care Act.
7. At lease one Canadian province will legalize the use of recreational marijuana.
8. The media will report on at least one assassination attempt against Donald Trump.
9. Bashar al-Assad will remain the President of Syria.
10. Brendan Dassey will be released from prison.
11. The S&P 500 will exceed 2,200 on 2017-03-17.
12. The S&P 500 will exceed 2,500 at any point before 2017-03-17.
13. The S&P 500 will fall below 1,900 at any point before 2017-03-17.
14. An Englishman will win the 2017 William Hill World Darts Championship.
15. The Canadian team will win the 2017 World Junior Ice Hockey Championships.
16. A single terrorist attack will kill at least 30 people in an OECD country.
17. ISIS will retain control of al-Raqqa.
18. The DJ at the econ department’s holiday party will play “Stayin’ Alive.”
19. The movie “Underworld: Blood Wars” will have a Rotten Tomatoes score below 35%.
20. An artifi cial intelligence will beat the world champion at Starcraft 2.

Here are the predictions:

TV FA WS ML CY BY XS PN JC RM GP HT MC EA KL MM Mean Outcome
1 80 70 60 60 30 50 60 100 85 80 70 70 90 100 100 70 72
2 50 70 40 40 50 40 50 100 70 50 30 10 50 50 0 50 50
3 100 40 20 20 70 30 30 50 47 30 20 10 5 0 0 20 34
4 90 70 50 20 50 100 10 0 65 100 50 100 80 100 20 40 63
5 100 70 0 0 70 30 0 0 40 0 25 0 25 60 0 30 30
6 50 65 99 100 80 100 50 100 35 0 40 50 30 70 60 80 62
7 20 70 20 90 100 80 0 100 15 30 30 50 50 0 5 10 47
8 0 57 100 10 100 100 100 100 30 20 10 50 50 20 80 50 53
9 80 75 30 50 50 30 50 100 100 100 90 50 75 100 90 90 70
10 10 60 20 40 30 0 100 100 55 90 80 50 65 50 60 75 54
11 20 50 90 50 50 10 80 75 60 100 90 50 70 100 30 50 64
12 20 45 20 30 30 10 60 0 75 50 10 50 30 30 0 20 33
13 60 60 70 30 70 50 40 80 45 50 10 50 25 0 40 30 46
14 20 50 0 60 50 50 50 100 65 40 50 50 75 50 70 50 51
15 80 67 100 70 100 100 100 100 70 70 30 50 30 50 70 40 73
16 100 60 0 20 70 0 100 75 40 80 40 50 30 50 10 20 51
17 70 0 80 90 70 50 100 0 25 50 60 50 50 50 30 65 53
18 70 60 80 90 70 80 100 100 55 100 95 100 70 100 80 20 84 FALSE
19 90 50 90 30 80 90 98 100 85 10 80 50 80 90 80 80 73
20 10 60 0 0 0 10 80 0 50 80 5 50 20 0 30 1 26
Score 0.49 0.36 0.64 0.81 0.49 0.64 1.00 1.00 0.30 1.00 0.90 1.00 0.49 1.00 0.64 0.04 0.70