In my capacity as President of the Economics Graduate Student Society at SFU, I set up a prediction contest. We hosted a pub night and I used the opportunity to solicit predictions on a wide range of topics. The person with the lowest Brier score will be the winner.
The predictions were made on March 12th, 2016 (before Lee Sedol’s fourth match against AlphaGo) and they will all be resolved on July 1st, 2016. I report the predictions and their outcomes (when they occur) in the table below:
|Robyn G.||Hanh T.||Ted W.||Peter N.||John C.||Chris S.||Brett K.||Natt H.||Garrett P.||Ricardo M.||Adib R.||Average||Outcome|
|Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States||0||50||70||99||77||85||100||100||90||100||80||77.4||TRUE|
|Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States||30||50||30||4||15||25||60||50||10||40||70||34.9||FALSE|
|A single terrorist attack in an OECD country will claim at least 100 lives||5||50||40||10||12||50||95||5||10||0||30||27.9||FALSE|
|A single terrorist attack in an OECD country will claim at least 50 lives||5||50||55||20||34||60||95||10||15||10||80||39.5||TRUE|
|The price of crude oil will be higher than 40 USD per barrel as of July 1st, 2016||70||50||65||25||58||60||20||80||40||80||70||56.2||TRUE|
|The price of crude oil will be higher than 45 USD per barrel as of July 1st, 2016||50||50||65||15||41||30||15||70||20||20||55||39.2||TRUE|
|An American golfer will win the US Open||50||50||5||50||63||20||0||0||70||70||70||40.7||TRUE|
|Serena Williams will win the Women’s Singles tennis tournament at the French Open||65||50||15||60||60||90||0||50||30||70||60||50.0||FALSE|
|The character who was stabbed in the last episode of Game of Thrones will be resurrected in the first episode of the next season||0||50||30||20||73||100||100||10||20||50||40||44.8||FALSE|
|That character will be resurrected in the first five episodes of the next season||20||50||55||40||88||100||80||10||80||50||30||54.8||TRUE|
|That character will be resurrected by the end of the next season||40||50||60||60||91||100||100||10||99||30||30||60.9||TRUE|
|Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will earn more in its opening weekend than Man of Steel ($116,619,362)||50||50||60||85||47||85||100||70||85||20||80||66.5||TRUE|
|Maduro will remain in power in Venezuela||90||50||50||10||94||60||25||90||80||80||20||59.0||TRUE|
|There will be a national election in Spain||100||50||50||50||80||70||80||5||80||0||70||57.7||TRUE|
|Conditional on there being a Spanish election, Rajoy will be elected the next Prime Minister of Spain||90||50||60||50||48||50||100||50||45||10||80||57.5|
|ISIS will maintain control of Al-Raqqah||90||50||70||70||96||100||15||70||60||50||90||69.2||TRUE|
|The Canadian dollar will be lower than 0.76 USD||20||50||25||80||45||76||0||70||40||10||20||39.6||FALSE|
|The econ department will select a new Chair and Associate Chair||50||50||15||75||53||50||100||5||40||80||80||54.4||FALSE|
|The winner of the NHL Western Conference will win the Stanley Cup||75||50||75||50||37||100||0||50||45||10||60||50.2||FALSE|
|AlphaGo will defeat Lee Sedol in all five Go matches||90||50||35||100||100||0||0||100||90||90||50||64.1||FALSE|
March 13th: Lee Sedol avenges humankind in his fourth match against AlphaGo.
March 15th: A car bomb attack in Turkey has killed at least 34, wounded 125. It doesn’t reach the threshold of 50.
— CNN (@CNN) March 22, 2016
This attack does not reach the threshold of 50, but the accelerating rate at which these attacks have occurred is worrisome.
March 28th: Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice has earned $166,007,347 in its opening weekend according to Box Office Mojo.
April 1st: To clarify, the questions on oil prices refer to the spot price of West Texas Intermediate as of July 1st. Future prediction contests will be more precise.
April 24th: Game of Thrones’ first episode of season six… [SPOILERS REDACTED]
May 2nd: I haven’t seen the latest episode of Game of Thrones yet, but if the buzz on the internet is to believed… [SPOILERS REDACTED]
July 4th: The prediction contest is now over (for a few days, actually)! The remaining predictions have been resolved, with the exception of the Spanish election.
Although Rajoy’s party did win the most seats, they do not have a majority and it’s not clear they will be able to form a coalition government. Rajoy will remain as acting Prime Minister, but the electoral outcome is not clear.
1st – Garrett P.
2nd – Ted W.
3rd – John C.
4th – Adib R.
5th – Hanh T.
6th – Chris S.
7th – Robyn G.
8th – Ricardo M.
9th – Peter N.
10th – Brett K.
11th – Natt H.